H.4.1 weekly monitor · Wednesday levelsReserve levels in the US banking system
Fed total assets less the Treasury General Account and overnight reverse repo — the net liquidity that actually reaches bank reserves, with four rules flagging anomalies automatically.
All dollar figures are in units of USD 100 million (1 = $100M).
- Data through
- 2026-08-26
- Next update
- 週四 22:00 UTC
- Coverage
- 2026-01 – 2026-08 (34 weeks)
- Units
- USD 100M / bp
a small drain, still within seasonal noise
- 4-week change
- +56
- SOFR − IORB
- −1 bp
- ON RRP balance
- 7
- SPX same week
- −0.42%
- NDX same week
- −0.68%
Key facts
- Definition
- Net liquidity = Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL) − Treasury General Account (TGA) − overnight reverse repo (ON RRP). All dollar figures are in units of USD 100 million (1 = $100M).
- Latest reading
- As of 2026-08-26, net liquidity was 57,708 (USD 100M), a change of −382 from the prior week.
- Components
- WALCL 67,309, TGA 9,594, ON RRP 7.02 (USD 100M).
- Short rates
- SOFR 3.64%, IORB 3.65%, spread −1 bp.
- Anomaly signals
- none of the four rules fired this week
- Sample
- 34 Wednesday observations starting 2026-01-07.
- Update cadence
- Once a week, automatically, after the Federal Reserve publishes H.4.1 on Thursday US Eastern time.
- Sources
- Federal Reserve H.4.1; FRED (WALCL, WDTGAL, IORB); Federal Reserve Bank of New York (ON RRP operations, SOFR).
Net liquidity vs. equities
Weekly net-liquidity change vs. same-week SPX return
This week’s change vs. next week’s SPX return
4-week change vs. 4-week SPX return
Weekly net-liquidity change vs. same-week NDX return
Across 33 observed weeks in 2026, all four correlations sit near zero — weekly changes in net liquidity do not explain same-week or next-week index returns
The three components
Fed total assets
Treasury General Account
Overnight reverse repo
SOFR − IORB spread
Anomaly rule check
Weekly detail
Anomaly signals |
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Frequently asked questions
What is net liquidity and how is it calculated?
Net liquidity subtracts the two accounts that lock cash out of the banking system from the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet: the Treasury General Account (TGA) and overnight reverse repo (ON RRP). The formula is WALCL − TGA − ON RRP. The intuition: Fed asset purchases push reserves into banks, while tax receipts flowing into the TGA and money-market cash parked at the ON RRP facility pull them back out. All three series are aligned to the same Wednesday so that different publication frequencies do not shift the arithmetic.
How often is the data updated, and where does it come from?
Weekly. The Federal Reserve publishes the H.4.1 release on Thursday afternoon US Eastern time, and this site fetches and recomputes shortly afterwards. WALCL, TGA (WDTGAL) and IORB come from FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; ON RRP operation amounts and SOFR come from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York public APIs. The underlying series is published as JSON at /data/liquidity.json.
What does the SOFR − IORB spread mean?
IORB is the rate the Federal Reserve pays banks on reserve balances, and it normally sits at the top of the short-rate range, so the secured overnight rate SOFR should trade below it. When SOFR flips from below IORB to above, or widens sharply within a single week, it usually means demand for secured funding is outrunning supply — an early sign that reserves are no longer abundant. The spread is shown here in basis points.
What are the four anomaly rules?
R1: the TGA rises by more than $50 billion in one week without a matching decline in ON RRP, meaning Treasury issuance is draining bank reserves directly. R2: the SOFR − IORB spread flips from negative to positive, or widens by more than 5 basis points in one week. R3: net liquidity falls for two consecutive weeks. R4: ON RRP drops by more than 20% of the prior week’s balance. All four are evaluated automatically against the latest week, and weeks that trigger a rule are flagged in the table.
How strongly is net liquidity related to equity returns?
The site computes and publishes sample correlations between weekly changes in net liquidity and weekly S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 returns — same week, one-week lead, and four-week cumulative. On the sample so far, the same-week correlation is close to zero and the four-week figure is weak. The numbers are shown on the page, so readers can judge for themselves; this site treats them as background conditions rather than a timing signal.
Is this an official site, or investment advice?
Neither. It is a personal project with no affiliation to the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury or any government agency, and it is not an official distribution channel. Always verify figures against the original releases. The page is a data monitoring tool and does not constitute investment advice.